Accurate predictions of the future are rare. Many examples exist where misguided intuition of the brightest and most qualified individuals prevented them from foreseeing the future. Consider examples from the arts (see part I), business (see part II), and science (see part III).

Misguided intuition in the arts
D. W. Griffith is regarded by many as one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. More than anyone of the silent era, he recognized the potential of movies as an expressive medium. During that time, his achievements were momentous. In 1915 he finished the feature “Birth of a Nation,” regarded as the first masterpiece of cinema. In 1919 he finished the movie “Intolerance” (1919), which marked a new standard in filmmaking. His next two movies, “Broken Blossoms” (1919) and “Way Down East” (1920), sealed his reputation as America’s preeminent director. According to James Agee, “To watch his work is like being a witness to the beginning of melody, or the first conscious use of the lever or the wheel; the emergence, coordination, and first eloquence of language; the birth of an art: and to realize that this is all the work of one man.” The great silent movie actor Lillian Gish called him “the father of film” and Charlie Chaplin called him “the teacher of us all.” During the same time, D. W. Griffith also exhibited superb business instincts by founding the United Artist production company together with Douglas Fairbanks, Charlie Chaplin, and Mary Pickford, the three greatest performers of the day.

However, from the mid to late 1920s things began to change. His intuitive powers started to wane. In 1924, at the age of 49, Griffith wrote in an article published by the Saturday Evening Post, “We do not want now and we shall never want the human voice with our films.” Only three years later, in 1927 the first talking movie, “The Jazz Singer” with Al Jolson was released. The reaction of the public to the movie was astounding. The picture was a sellout, one of the big box office hits of all time. In October 1930, the Fortune magazine wrote, “The advent of American talking movies is beyond comparison the fastest and most amazing revolution the whole history of industrial revolutions.” Griffith’s failed prediction was only an early sign of his now chronic misguided intuition. From the late 1920s, Griffith’s movies were slowly sinking into oblivion. In the glitter of the Jazz Age, his filmmaking was considered hopelessly old-fashioned. His last picture, “The Struggle,” was made in 1931 and played in theaters for merely a week before being withdrawn. On July 23, 1948, Griffith died in a small Los Angeles hotel virtually forgotten by the industry he helped build.

What was the cause of Griffith’s transition from great intuition to misguided intuition? One of the most common causes of misguided intuition, and therefore, the limited success of experts in predicting the future, is the “situation bias.” Experts, like all humans, tend to imagine future technologies as an extension of current technologies. The bias grows stronger when the individual has a vested interest in the current technology and is concerned that the new technology will diminish the popularity of his or her prized, older technology. Griffith was a master of the silent movie. His skill in eliciting powerful reactions from the audience without resorting to spoken dialogue was legendary. This unique skill was the reason for his downfall. It distorted his intuition and prevented him from foreseeing the potential of the human voice in movies.

How is this example related to misguided intuition in market research? The situation bias is especially strong in manual interpretation of qualitative data. During such interpretation, the analyst shows a strong tendency to look for the familiar. Pat Bentley from Apple emphasizes this point: “When you analyze the respondents’ answers manually you look for repeats, things that sound important either because you heard them before or you’re looking for them yourself; therefore, they make sense to you.”

Do you want to observe your own situational bias? Go to http://www.computerintuition.com/Question1.htm and follow the instructions.

About the Author

Mike T. Davis, Ph.D., SCI, Rochester NY
We are the inventors of Computer Intuition?, a psycholinguistics based program that analyzes the language that people use. The program calculates the psychological intensity, or psytensity, of every idea found in the input, and “converts what people say into what people do”?. SCI’s clients include many Fortune 500 and smaller companies.

The price of a college education has risen dramatically in the last ten years. Prices of tuition, room and board and books have increased much faster than the rate of inflation, and students and their parents have struggled to find ways to pay for these increases.

A recent study by the Smith College Women and Financial Independence Program found that nearly one quarter of college students are using their credit cards to pay for some of their college expenses. This is a poor choice, as we shall soon see.

Unlike a generation ago, most students today have at least one major credit card. The lending industry has aggressively targeted college students and made it very easy for them to obtain cards. The problem is that most people of college age have relatively little money management experience and tend to use the cards rather foolishly.

About ten percent of college students have balances on their credit cards of at least $5000, and much of this debt is attributable to using the cards for college expenses.

The main problem is the interest rate on credit cards, which tends to be much higher than other borrowing choices for tuition. The Federal Stafford student loan program offers rates for tuition in the neighborhood of 5%, and that?s after an increase that recently went into effect. Five percent is a dramatic improvement over the 20% or so that one might pay using a credit card.

Other options are available. Some universities will allow payments; students should inquire to see if they can simply pay on installments. Even if interest is added, it undoubtedly will be a less expensive option than paying by credit card. There are student loan programs available for the parents of students at favorable rates that are only slightly higher than those for Federal student loans.

Students need to understand how to use credit cards responsibly. The best use for credit cards is for a purchase that can be afforded immediately, not a long term purchase. Buying textbooks with a credit card is OK as long as you can pay the bill when it comes at the end of the month. Putting a semester?s tuition on the card, with no idea as to how or when it might be repaid, is a poor choice.

Students who develop bad spending habits early are more likely to have problem debt down the road, and may be headed towards early bankruptcy as their spending hurts their credit report.

Anyone who has questions about how to effectively pay for education expenses should contact his or her school?s administration. They can point out which department or departments may be able to help assist with expenses in a way that won?t drive students straight into a life of problem debt.

About the Author: Talbert Williams offers debt consolidation, debt reduction, credit card debt referrals and advice. For more information, articles, news, tools and valuable resources on debt solutions, visit this site: http://www.1debtfreedom.com